Football Pleaser
Disclaimer
- A football pleaser is a multi-game bet on football, like a parlay, but one that allows you to move the pointspread to improve your potential payout. It is essentially the opposite of a teaser.
- What Is a Pleaser? Pleasers are a type of parlay that involve combining multiple point spread wagers or multiple totals wagers into a single bet.
What Is a Pleaser Bet? A pleaser is essentially the exact opposite of a teaser. When betting pleasers, you will ‘give’ or ‘sell’ the sportsbook points on a spread or totals line in exchange for a higher potential payout. This means the odds will move in the sportsbook’s favor.
The analysis on this page is based on the 4450 NFL games between the 1994 to 2012 seasons. I started with 1994 because that was the year the two-point conversion rule was introduced. Besides sample size variation, I also had to make assumptions about how point spreads were created on pleaser cards. The reader should assume there is some margin of error on any statistic on the probability of winning and expected return anywhere on this page. At the end of the day, sports are ultimately played by human beings, not statistics, so always take any predictions of future results, based on past results, with a grain of salt.
Introduction
For those who know what a teaser bet is, a pleaser (also known as a reverse teaser) works the same way, except the bettor gets negative points. Obviously, that means a lower probability of winning each leg, so the bettor is compensated with a higher pay table.
For those who don't know what a teaser is, with a parlay, teaser, or pleaser bet, the bettor makes at least two selections against a list of games. The player must win every selection to win the bet. The more selections made, the lower the probability of winning, but the higher the win if every selection does win. Rules vary on what happens in the event of a tie. With a parlay the bettor goes against a point spread with no extra points. With a teaser the bettor gets extra points, but stands to win less. With a pleaser, the bettor gives up points but stands to win more.
Pleaser bets are apparently not very popular, as evidenced by the fact that only three Vegas sports book families offer pleaser cards, as follows:
- William Hill — 7-point pleaser
- Stratosphere — 7.5-point pleaser
- MGM — 9-point pleaser
I have never heard of an off the board pleaser bet.
Following is my analysis of each one.
7-Point Pleaser
The 7-point pleaser card is available at William Hill sport books and the Aliante only. All point spreads end in a 1/2, thus there can be no ties. The following table shows the win (on a 'for one' basis), probability of winning, and expected return for 3 to 8 picks, assuming a random picker. The probability of each leg winning is 28.65%.
To following table is based on the William Hill pay table. The right column shows the house edge ranges from 39% to 73%.
7-Point William Hill Pleaser Card — Random Picker
| Pick | Pays | Prob. Win | Exp. Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 26 | 0.023508 | -0.388796 |
| 4 | 80 | 0.006734 | -0.461266 |
| 5 | 240 | 0.001929 | -0.537016 |
| 6 | 700 | 0.000553 | -0.613166 |
| 7 | 2000 | 0.000158 | -0.683388 |
| 8 | 6000 | 0.000045 | -0.727906 |
To following table is based on the Aliante pay table. The right column shows the house edge ranges from 39% to 73%.
7-Point Aliante Pleaser Card — Random Picker
| Pick | Pays | Prob. Win | Exp. Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 23 | 0.023508 | -0.459319 |
| 4 | 70 | 0.006734 | -0.528608 |
| 5 | 210 | 0.001929 | -0.594889 |
| 6 | 600 | 0.000553 | -0.668428 |
| 7 | 1700 | 0.000158 | -0.730880 |
| 8 | 5000 | 0.000045 | -0.773255 |
The smart gambler could cut down these house advantages by playing situations where he gives up less than 7 points and/or stays away from giving up key margins of victory. However, the random-picker house edges are so high to begin with that I wouldn't touch this pleaser card, even utilizing everything in my bag of tricks.
7.5-Point Pleaser
The 7.5-point pleaser card is available at the Stratosphere family of sports books only. All point spreads end in a 1/2, thus there can be no ties. The following table shows the win (on a 'for one' basis), the probability of winning, and expected return for 3 to 6 picks, assuming a random picker. The probability of each leg winning is 27.38%. The right column shows the house edge ranges from 64% to 81%.
7.5-Point Stratosphere Pleaser Card — Random Picker
| Pick | Pays | Prob. Win | Exp. Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 17.5 | 0.020534 | -0.640647 |
| 4 | 50 | 0.005623 | -0.718844 |
| 5 | 170 | 0.001540 | -0.738230 |
| 6 | 450 | 0.000422 | -0.810251 |
As with the 7-point pleaser, we could chip away at these enormous house advantages via gaining extra half points by carefully comparing the spreads on the card against those on the board. By waiting as long as possible, the bettor can take advantage of line movements. Even with no line movements, if the point spread ended in a half to begin with, then the card maker would have to move the point spreads on each side by 7 and 8 points to keep the pleaser spreads ending in one half. The bettor will improve his odds giving up 7 points only, compared to 7.5. However, it is all a losing battle against house advantages starting at 64%.
9-Point Pleaser
The 9-point pleaser card is available at MGM sports book only. All point spreads end in a 1/2, thus there can be no ties. The following table shows the win (on a 'for one' basis), the probability of winning, and expected return for 3 to 8 picks, assuming a random picker. The probability of each leg winning is 24.17%. The right column shows the house edge ranges from 75% to 94%.
9-Point MGM Pleaser Card — Random Picker
| Pick | Pays | Prob. Win | Exp. Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 17.5 | 0.014123 | -0.752850 |
| 4 | 55 | 0.003414 | -0.812244 |
| 5 | 180 | 0.000825 | -0.851471 |
| 6 | 500 | 0.000199 | -0.900272 |
| 7 | 1500 | 0.000048 | -0.927682 |
| 8 | 5000 | 0.000012 | -0.941732 |
A 94% house edge? Are you f#*&ing kidding me! Fair odds for a 8-leg MGM pleaser, for a random picker, would be 85,810, and they are playing 5,000 only. Lottery tickets are an outstanding value compared to this.
For a second, I thought this was the worst casino bet I've ever seen. However, that honor still goes to the Harrah's Las Vegas keno room, where the house edge on their 'pick-10 stimulus ticket' is 96.63%.
Summary
Let me make this loud and clear. Pleasers are a sucker bet! If you must bet one, the best odds are on the pick-3 pleaser at William Hill sports books, with a 39% house edge. As mentioned before, you can cut down on the house edge by betting as late as possible to give up as few points as possible, compared to the market lines on the board. Even if you could cut down the house edge in half, it would still be an awful bet.
Forget the pleaser cards. Your odds are a lot better with ordinary parlay cards.
Internal Links
External Links
- Las Vegas Sports Betting Survey — What each sports book family pays on parlays and teasers.
Written by: Michael Shackleford
College Football Pleasers
What is a Football Pleaser in Regards to Sports Betting and Wagering?
by Doc's Sports - 10/10/2014
Football Pleaser Odds
A football pleaser is not someone who works hard to keep the pigskin happy. A football pleaser is a multi-game bet on football, like a parlay, but one that allows you to move the pointspread to improve your potential payout. It is essentially the opposite of a teaser.
In a teaser you are able to move the point spread so that it is easier for teams to cover the spread than it is in a parlay, which uses the posted odds. For example, in a six-point teaser, if you were betting the Patriots (-3) and the Colts (-7) then in the teaser your odds would be Patriots (+3) and Colts (-1). Because the bet is much easier to win in a teaser than a parlay, the payout is obviously worse. A pleaser takes the opposite approach - much harder to win, but a much better potential payout.
Football Please
With a six-point pleaser the lines would not be shifted so that the Patriots were at (-9) and the Colts were at (-13). Big difference. You can see how significant the difference is by comparing the payouts. A two-team, six-point football teaser pays 10/11. A two-team parlay pays 13/5. A two-team football pleaser typically pays 11/2. So, a two-team, six-point pleaser will pay out more than twice as much as a two-team parlay.
So, the payout is much better, but why would you want to make this bet? The truth is that a lot of sharp bettors wouldn’t for the most part - the math is just plain lousy for parlays and often not much better for teasers or pleasers. If you felt that a team had a particularly significant edge, though, then this could be a way to leverage that opinion for a chance at a bigger payday. Still, pleasers tend to be the territory of squares in most cases - they are very often sucker bets. If you feel compelled to bet pleasers you have two choices - either bet them entirely for fun, knowing that you likely aren’t betting for any value, or really do your homework in advance to see if you have a found a rare attractive pleaser.
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