Poker Bad
For example, your pocket aces get cracked over and over again, you lose flush over flush, they hit their miracle cards against you on the river seemingly every time, and so on.
Is Planning Poker Bad for Software Development Teams? This is the wrong question to ask. Planning poker is a tool. Asking if planning poker is bad for software development teams is like asking if a screwdriver is bad for plumbers. If the tool fits the job then it's a good tool, if not, then it's not. The real question you should be asking. Understand Equity of Your Hand. Equity (your odds of winning the pot) plays a very important role in.
This is actually a completely natural thing in poker, which we call a 'downswing' and it happens to everybody, sooner or later.
But many people are actually a bit surprised at just how long a downswing can last. So in this article I am going to discuss if you can run bad in poker for months, and what you can do about it.
How Long Can You Run Bad in Poker?
So how long can you actually run bad in poker? Well, technically it can last as long as it wants to. Poker is just cold hard math at the end of the day.
And the one thing that I have learned from playing millions and millions of hands is that the more you play, the more completely insane statistical anomalies that you will encounter.
If you think about it though, this only makes sense. If you sit there flipping a coin a million times eventually it's going to land tails 12 times in a row right?
So in my poker career I have had multiple instances where I ran far below EV (expected value) for over 100,000 hands. And I was absolutely convinced that I would never another hand of poker again.
This is why if you read my poker blog here regularly you will know that I often quote this number (100k) as the bare minimum thresh-hold to draw any kind of reasonably accurate conclusions about your poker results.
And people have told me many times that this number is way too high. I am crazy. But this is because they don't want to believe that it can actually take that long to get your true results in poker.
After all, playing 100,000 hands of poker takes an entire year for some people even if they multi-table online. If you play live, playing this amount could take years.
But when you have played 10+ million hands of poker like I have, then and only then, will you begin to understand the real nature of variance in this game.
If you haven't even reached 1 million hands played yet in your poker career, believe me, you haven't seen anything yet.
You Can Run Bad in Poker For Months or Even Years
So to answer the questions, yes, you can run bad in poker for months or even years on end, especially in the case of tournament players. Any long term poker pro will also tell you the same thing.
And this is unfortunately why so many people struggle to win at this game. Because they never get past the short term in poker.
I have people coming to me all the time claiming that online poker is rigged because they lost over a sample of 5,000 hands.
But anybody who takes poker seriously knows that 5,000 hands is not even close to a statistically representative sample.
And so herein lies the problem with the game.
Poker Bad Hand
Most amateurs do not play even close to enough hands to get to the long term in any kind of reasonable time period.
Heck, even many pros don't!
And this is especially troublesome for somebody who is brand new to poker and happens to begin their career on a bad downswing (which can and does absolutely happen all the time).
These people very often just end up quitting the game completely and never even give themselves an opportunity to succeed.
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What Can You Do to Stop Running Bad?
So what can you actually do when you are in a downswing? Is there any way to stop running so bad Well, I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but sadly, no, there isn't really a whole lot you can do.
Brutal downswings hit every poker player at a certain point and all long term pros have experience several of them and remember them vividly (if they even survived).
However, there are a few small things you can do to help mitigate the damage of running bad for months on end.
Firstly, and this might sound extremely obvious, but just get better at poker. If you need to study some advanced poker strategy, go do that.
If you need to hire a coach, join a poker training site, study advanced poker strategy books and so on, go do all that too. The bottom line, is improve your edge versus the other players in your games.
Because this will do more than anything to lessen the impact of running bad for an extended period of time.
If you can learn to steal a few more pots from them for example, this will lessen the blow of another big bad beat loss.
This is why I focus so heavily on aiming for the optimal or absolute 'ceiling' winrate in whatever games that you play in all the time in my poker books and here on my blog.
The reason why I was able to survive so many absolutely soul crushing downswings during my poker career is because I often was among the very biggest winners in the game.
This helps soften the blows considerably.
A weak reg with a small winrate (bb/100) for example might lose 5 buyins in a bad session where I only lose 2 or 3 buyins because my winrate is higher.
This is much easier to handle from a psychological perspective when you are losing every single day for weeks or months on end, like I have many times.
Create a Clearly Defined Quitting Strategy When Running Bad
The next way to mitigate the damage for an extended period of running bad is to create a clearly defined quitting strategy.
And what this really does is lessen the impact of tilt.
Your biggest enemy when you are in the midst of a brutal downswing that last for weeks or months is tilt.
Tilt is the frustration that builds inside of you due to another bad beat, another cooler and so on, which causes you to make poor emotional charged decisions in future hands, instead of calculated rational decisions.
Tilt ruins bankrolls, dreams and even careers in this game. I have seen it happen again and again.
And this is why it is so crucially important that you are able to simply get up and walk away from the poker tables before any real damage can be done.
So for me personally I use a Stop Loss of 5 buy-ins during normal times when I am running, well normal. This means that if I lose 5 full buy-ins for a cash game (500 big blinds), then I am absolutely done for the day.
Poker Badge
However, during periods when I am in a lengthy downswing, I shorten my Stop Loss to just 3 buy-ins. This is something that all poker pros do as I discuss in The Micro Stakes Playbook.
And the reason why I shorten my Stop Loss during an extended period of running bad is because I know that my fuse is much shorter overall.
I don't care how stoic you are, how much you meditate on mountaintops and do yoga marathons, weeks and months in a row of getting slaughtered in every hand you play at the poker table is going to get to you at a certain point.
You are going to start to feel resentful. You are going to start predicting future losses and get that hopeless feeling that you will never win again.
So, because I am well aware that I am more emotional during an extended downswing, I know that I have to be more disciplined than normal with my quitting strategy.
So if I lose 3 buy-ins, or 300 big blinds, I am outta there for the day.
If You Are Running Bad Right Now, Hang in There
I guess I will finish up here by just saying that if you found this article by googling 'running bad poker', or some variety of that, I want you to know that I feel your pain.
Because believe me, I have been there countless times myself.
The one thing that you need to know right now is that it will end. No more how brutal they are. No matter how dark it feels, downswing do, mercifully, always end.
You need to understand that all the bad beats, the coolers, the missed draws and so on are not normal. And your results right now are not representative of your true prowess as a poker player.
What you are going through right now is a test of how strong willed you are to get through this. Because truthfully, most people crack under the pressure when it happens to them.
They go on mass tilt and literally just give their bankroll away. And this is the #1 reason why most people lose at poker in the long run.
Poker is an absolutely brutal game sometimes but you need to remember that it is also all in your head. Everybody will eventually run about the same over the long run.
The only difference between the big winners, break even players and the vast majority who loss, is how they handle times just like this, running bad for weeks or months on end.
This is when you get to prove yourself as a poker player.
Final Thoughts
So can you run bad in poker for months on end?
Sure, you absolutely can. In fact, this is a completely normal occurrence that will happen to every poker player at some point.
In fact, it even happens to world class pros like Daniel Negreanu as he discusses in his Masterclass training program.
And while terrible downswings can make you feel utterly hopeless and lose all confidence in your poker game, you have to know that they are not representative of reality.
They are a distortion of your real poker results and your real abilities. Extreme mathematical anomalies, which is essentially what an extended period of running bad is, cannot last forever.
And that really is the key point. Your downswing will end.
Your main goal right now is to just keep getting in there each day, playing as best as you can, and try to mitigate the damage.
You do this by setting a clear Stop Loss, which means when you lose a certain amount of buy-ins or big blinds, you are done for the day. No ifs, ands or buts.
Lastly, if you want to know the complete strategy that I have used as a 10+ year pro to create some of the highest winnings in online poker history at the micros, make sure you grab a copy of my free poker cheat sheet.
Seneca Gaming & Entertainment
QUALIFIERS FOR JACKPOT:
Texas Hold 'em: A player must lose with four deuces (2,2,2,2) or better to a higher 4 of a kind or better.
Both the winning and losing hands must play both of their hole cards (pocket pair for 4 of a kind).
Seven Card Stud: A player must lose with four deuces (2,2,2,2) or better to a higher 4 of a kind or better.
Both the winning and losing hands must use at least one hole card.
Omaha All Varieties: A player must lose with four nines (9,9,9,9) or better to a higher 4 of a kind or better.
Both the winning and losing hands must play two of their hole cards (pocket pair for 4 of a kind).
For all jackpots, there will be a table requirement that the pot must have a minimum of $20,
a minimum of five (5) players must be at the table for Texas Hold'em and Omaha and a minimum of four (4) players must be at the table for Stud.
PRIZE DISTRIBUTION:
Whenever a jackpot is hit, the day's posted amount will be divided accordingly.
50% to losing hand (second best hand)
25% to winning hand
25% equally divided between eligible remaining players at the table who do not have a 'missed blind' button.
If a player is a Seneca Gaming and Entertainment employee the winnings of the employee will be replaced back into the secondary jackpot.
The player with the 'Bad Beat' (2nd best hand) will receive 50% of the posted amount, the player with the winning hand will receive 25% of the posted amount, and the remaining 25% will be equally divided between the remaining players at the table who do not have a 'missed blind' button.
All players must have money at the table or be playing behind, to qualify for the Bad Beat Progressive.
If two players lose with hands that qualify for bad beats in the same hand, only the higher of the two losing hands will constitute a bad beat.
Adjustments to the posted Bad Beat Jackpot amount may be made at the discretion of the house.
All employees are ineligible for any Bad Beat progressive payouts.
COLLECTION SCHEDULE:
Games that qualify for the 'Bad Beat' collection are all games of $5/$5 and smaller BLINDS. In all of these games $2.00 chip/token are taken from every pot when the pot reaches $20.
Only $2 Chips/tokens will be put into the 'Bad Beat' boxes. The $2 chip/token are placed on the left side of the dealer on the drop slot. The $2 chip/token is only dropped into the 'Bad Beat' box after all hands are mucked, the pot is pushed to the winner, and the house rake is dropped.
DROP PROCEDURES:
1. The $2.00 chip/token are placed on the left side of the dealer in front of the drop slot
2. Muck all losing hands
3. Push pot to the winning hand
4. Drop the house rake
5. Drop the $2.00 chip/token 'Bad Beat' chip
DISQUALIFIERS:
1. A fouled deck
2. Players talking about a potential jackpot
3. Less than five (5) players
4. Less than $20 in the pot, not counting the rake
COLLECTION DISBURSEMENTS:
The money collected for the Bad Beat Jackpot is distributed into three (3) distinct accounts accordingly for each game as listed:
1. Fifteen percent (15%) to the primary jackpot
2. Five percent (5%) to the secondary jackpot
3. Eighty percent (80%) to the promotional jackpot*
The above percentages are effective with the following day's drop.
*The promotional jackpot will include all games and will be distributed accordingly with no regard to which game is being played at the time of distribution, thus making all games eligible for promotional giveaways.
Promotions include, but are not limited to, promotional merchandise and other promotional programs designed by Seneca Gaming and Entertainment.
Poker Bad Beats Phil Hellmuth
Seneca Gaming & Entertainment reserves the right to modify or discontinue this promotion at any time without notice.
Poker Bad Luck
IRS Requirements
1. Bad Beat falls under table games wagering transaction where a posted jackpot is paid.
2. For US Residents, an IRS Form W2-G is required for Bad Beat winnings with a value of $600 or more and withholdings are required at $5,000.
3. Foreign citizens will be issued an IRS Form 1042-S and 30% withholdings are required
4. All transactions over $10,000 will require an IRS Currency Transaction Report (CTR).
Cage Controls
A record of each winner receiving non-cash prizes with a value of $25 or more will be maintained by the poker room cage and turned into accounting on a monthly basis.
At the end of the calendar year, the patrons who have received cash and non-cash prizes totaling $600 or more will receive an IRS Form 1099.
Winners are responsible for all applicable taxes and fees. Residents of foreign countries will be subject to 30% withholdings on all payouts. Seneca Gaming & Entertainment reserves the right to modify or discontinue these events at any time without notice. SG&E will not be held responsible in the event of typographical errors, misinformation on the website or printed material pertaining to this promotion, and players will have no claim in these matters.